Contrary to what most Americans believe, the United States may be closer to launching a full-scale attack in the Middle East. A US military action in Iran would be a "massive, weeks-long campaign" rather than a brief, focused one like the one in Venezuela, according to an Axios story that cites sources.
In two weeks, there is a 90% chance of military action.
There is a 90% likelihood that a military attack will be initiated over the next several weeks, a Trump aide told the outlet. "The boss is losing patience. "I think there is 90% chance we see kinetic action in the next few weeks," the advisor added, despite some of his friends and family warning him against going to war with Iran.
More extensive than the previous 12-day strike on Iran in June, the operation is probably a coordinated US-Israeli campaign that may pose a threat to the Iranian leadership. The war may even affect US President Donald Trump's remaining term in office, according to the report. There hasn't been much public discourse with the Congress, despite the fact that it's a highly consequential issue.
Trump allegedly came close to authorizing military strikes on Iran in January of this year following a violent crackdown on protestors and rising tensions over its nuclear program. Despite the lack of strikes, the Trump administration used a two-pronged approach, maintaining nuclear discussions while also strengthening the military.
The Trump administration hopes that by doing this, it will show what an operation would look like in the event that a deal is not reached.
Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump's aides, met with Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Geneva on Tuesday for three hours. The Axios article claims that there are significant "gaps" in the negotiations and that US officials are pessimistic about the deal's success, despite the fact that both parties claimed that progress had been made.
Trump has set "red lines" that the Iranians are unwilling to cross, US Vice President JD Vance told Fox News.
US Military Activation Close to Iran
In the meantime, despite Tehran officials agreeing to resume negotiations with a new proposal in two weeks, the U.S. military is gradually increasing its air and naval capabilities close to Iran. According to Axios, more than 50 American fighter jets, including F-35s, F-22s, and F-16s, have relocated to West Asia in the past day.
As tensions rise, the US commander has already dispatched the USS Abraham Lincoln, an aircraft carrier, to the Arabian Sea at the end of January. A dozen F-15 fighter jets, a MQ-9 Reaper combat drone, and multiple A-10C Thunderbolt II ground attack aircraft also arrived at the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, according to a BBC story from the first week of February.
A US Navy MQ-4C Triton surveillance drone was flying over the Gulf, and the satellite footage also revealed the USS Delbert D. Black, a guided-missile destroyer, was traveling from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea via Egypt's Suez Canal. Prior reports in the area also mentioned the presence of a P-8 Poseidon, an E-11A communications aircraft, and an E-3G Sentry surveillance and reconnaissance aircraft. Additionally, the United States has dispatched a second aircraft carrier to the area.
According to US authorities, Iran has two weeks to present a comprehensive plan. Trump gave himself two weeks to choose between a military assault and more negotiations in June of last year. However, three days later US attacked Iran.
Israeli officers claim that the government is getting ready for war in a matter of days.