Thousands of demonstrators in the Brazilian city of Belém stopped traffic on Saturday, pleading with decision-makers to take immediate action to combat global warming. The next few days will determine if that demand is answered as the United Nations climate talks move into their crucial second week.
The COP30 meeting has seen the arrival of national climate ministers. If they are to reach an agreement by Friday, they will need to resolve disagreements over important topics, such as how to expedite emissions reductions, provide climate funding, and enable commerce. Additionally, it's questionable if delegates will be able to carry out President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil's proposal for a roadmap to move away from fossil fuels.
In an interview, Jennifer Morgan, Germany's former special envoy on climate, stated, "I've had more conversations about fossil fuel transitioning away at this COP than any other, and now it's time for ministers to deliver on President Lula's call." "They'll find a place to put it if there's enough political momentum and enough countries behind it."
There was a conciliatory attitude and rapid consensus on the agenda during the first week. Meetings were referred to as "therapy sessions," and Brazilian negotiators requested "love letters" from nations outlining their goals for COP30. But as the clock ticks down and ministers argue over wording, maintaining that composure will be difficult.
Any effort to move away from coal, oil, and gas must be balanced with other essential needs by Brazil, the host of COP30. China wants to talk about unfair trade practices, while the negotiating group of Like Minded Developing countries, which includes Saudi Arabia and India, is urging wealthy countries to make more specific commitments on climate funding.
COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago told reporters on Friday that there is "significant resistance" to the concept of a roadmap for fossil fuels. Until the conference ends at 6 p.m. on Friday, Brazil will probably need to wrap up the various components in a final decision, which will set the scenario for further late-night negotiations.At a press conference, Brazil's chief negotiator, Liliam Chagas, declared, "We are entering the political phase." "The issues at hand are viewed in a variety of ways."
It is unlikely that a complete fossil fuel plan will be released by Friday. One possible approach would be to make a commitment to talk about it for the next year or more. The next phase of stock-taking is scheduled for 2028, and it will reveal how far nations have fallen short of the Paris Agreement's target of keeping global warming to 1.5C and what needs to be done to close the gap.
In some areas of the UN-administered Blue Zone, where talks are taking place, there is hope that an agreement on adaptation funds can be reached.There is a rush to develop a new, more ambitious objective for the next ten years as the 2021 agreement to double it to about $40 billion expires at the end of this year. That might increase support for reducing the use of fossil fuels.
According to those acquainted with the situation, President Lula is anticipated to attend the summit in the closing days in an effort to break any impasse.
There has already been talk of a potential mutirão decision, named for a Brazilian word meaning collective effort, to bring together the various issues, even though the Brazilian COP30 presidency was cool to the idea of issuing a so-called cover decision, or a document that summarizes the conference's outcome.
An result will be based around recognizing the accomplishments made in the ten years since the Paris Agreement, moving from negotiation to implementation, and addressing the urgency of the climate catastrophe, according to a summary of negotiations released by the presidency late on Sunday.
Though it doesn't specifically link it to the phase-out of fossil fuels, the text leaves open the idea of map as one of several ways to expedite action.
Corrêa do Lago stressed at the end of the first week that the parties decide how to move forward. He told reporters on Saturday, "We are going to have work in the mutirão spirit next week, and we really mean it."
However, when nations disagree and time is of the essence, optimism can only go so far.According to David Waskow, head of the World Resources Institute's International Climate Initiative, "giving parties that room has been helpful in many ways." "But I don't think it would be beneficial to reach a final agreement if we kept going in that direction, sort of floating in space for too long."