This time, it's difficult to overlook the decline in the price of the Indian thali. According to Crisil's Roti Rice Rate (RRR) for October, the price of a home-cooked vegetarian plate decreased by 17% year over year, while the price of a non-vegetarian thali decreased by 12%—one of the biggest declines in recent months. This is a significant print if India's inflation dashboard starts in the kitchen.
Cheaper vegetables and pulses are the main cause of the reduction, according to Pushan Sharma, director of Crisil Intelligence. Stronger arrivals from southern and western markets caused tomato prices to decline. On a large base impact, potato prices decreased. As Rabi 2024–25 stocks entered the market ahead of Kharif shipments in November, onion prices fell.

Increased imports of Bengal gramme, yellow pea, and black gramme contributed to adjustments in pulses as well. In summary, supply timing, inventory releases, and imports all worked in the consumer's benefit, not because farmers produced significantly more.
However, the fine print is always present.
A portion of this deflation is not structural, but rather calendar-driven. After excessive rainfall in Karnataka and Maharashtra delayed kharif transplanting and raised yield concerns, Crisil cautions that onion prices may rise once more in the medium future. Due to the low early rabi supply, potato prices may remain solid in November despite being sluggish in October. They won't start to decline until cold-storage inventories begin to be released by mid-December. Although consistent kharif arrivals may keep tomato prices stable for the time being, pulses may turn around.

Prices may rise as a result of recent weather interruptions and New Delhi's 30% import tax on yellow peas, particularly if similar taxes apply to other pulses.
What does the MPC stand to gain from this?
Even though India's CPI trajectory has improved this year, officials are wise enough to not rely on a single season of food softening. Nearly half of the inflation basket is still made up of food. CPI fluctuates in tandem with the thali. Rate predictions fluctuate along with the CPI. As a result, every vegetable price print serves as a stand-in for India's monetary policy trajectory.
Does the RBI go closer to easing as a result of the October thali cool-down? It's not likely to be that easy. Because food inflation in India is a series of disruptions rather than a story of trendlines. Due to the fact that weather shocks are increasingly macro hazards rather than footnotes.

The calculation is nevertheless difficult for the Monetary Policy Committee. If onions, potatoes, or pulses all rebound at the same time in the upcoming months, lowering rates to provide short-term food price relief could backfire. The behaviour of inflation nevertheless calls for caution, even though growth impulses may support a milder tilt.