According to rating agency ICRA, India's GDP is expected to increase at 6.2% in FY27, lower than the previous forecast of 6.5% due to high crude oil prices brought on by the West Asia crisis.
The National Statistical Office's (NSO) Second Advance projection (SAE) of 7.6% for the fiscal year is slightly higher than ICRA's 7.5% GDP growth projection for FY26.
Given the continued stickiness in prices despite the impasse in West Asia, ICRA now projects that crude oil prices will average at $95/bbl in FY27, as opposed to our previous forecast of $85/bbl. As a result, our baseline estimate for FY27 GDP growth (at constant 2022–2023 prices) has been lowered from 6.5% to 6.2%, according to ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar.

Additionally, the rating agency predicted that GDP growth in the fourth quarter would slow to a three-quarter low of 7% from 7.8% in the third quarter of 2025–2026.
Even though the agriculture sector's performance is probably going to have marginally improved, GDP growth between both quarters is anticipated to have been restrained by a slower expansion across the industrial and services sectors.
However, the industrial gross value added (GVA) growth performance in the quarter may have been impacted by a slower increase in manufacturing volumes, a decline in exports, and early indications of margin pressure amid the fallout from West Asia.As a result, we anticipate that GDP growth will have remained relatively strong but declined to a three-quarter low of 7% in Q4 2025–2026, below the NSO's implicit projection of 7.3% for the quarter," Nayar stated.
After a little 1.4% increase in the December quarter, India's merchandise exports declined 2.8% year over year in the March quarter of 2025–2026 due to slowing global growth and shipping problems brought on by the conflict in West Asia.