According to the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) long-range forecast, precipitation in 2026 is expected to be 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), which is below average for the southwest monsoon.
With an LPA of 87 cm for the June–September season based on the 1971–2020 timeframe, the projection has a model error margin of ±5%. "Below normal" rainfall is defined as less than 96% of the LPA.
While certain areas in the northeast, northwest, and south peninsula of India are anticipated to see normal to above-normal precipitation, most of the country is expected to see below-average rainfall.Nearly half of India's cropland is irrigated by the southwest monsoon, which usually arrives over Kerala around June 1 and disappears by mid-September. In addition to increasing food inflation and reducing rural demand, a weaker monsoon may have an effect on the output of rain-fed crops including rice, pulses, and oilseeds.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions are forecast to dominate from April to June 2026, according to the IMD. El Niño conditions are anticipated to emerge during the monsoon season, which usually decreases rainfall over India.
Simultaneously, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are currently in place, and a positive phase is expected to develop towards the end of the monsoon.A positive IOD is thought to be advantageous for rainfall and may partially counteract El Niño's negative effects.
The Northern Hemisphere and Eurasian snow cover between January and March 2026 was marginally below average, according to the weather office, which is normally good for the ensuing southwest monsoon.
The monsoon in 2026 will be below average for the first time in three years, and markets and policymakers will be keenly monitoring the forecast to see how it will affect crop productivity, inflation, and overall economic development.
In the final week of May, the IMD is anticipated to provide an updated monsoon forecast.