Girish Wagh, MD and CEO of Tata Motors Ltd., confirmed on Thursday that the consequences of the US-Iran war, particularly the increase in diesel prices, will have a short-term effect on domestic commercial vehicle demand, which is anticipated to grow in single digits this fiscal year, but that India's macroeconomic growth will help overcome it in the long run.
"India growth story will lead to increase in road freight, and therefore the commercial vehicle demand" in the long run, he added, referring to fuel price increases and input cost inflation as "cyclical headwinds" that would cause some adjustments in the quarterly and annual demand.There are short-term challenges.The CEO told reporters that the Middle East turmoil, the ensuing rise in oil prices, and the ultimate but less severe increase in diesel prices are all obstacles. He said that the automaker thinks these are more cyclical headwinds and that rising commodity costs are another obstacle.
"The GDP growth, industrial index of production, the way it has been growing, the growth in manufacturing, growth in consumption, growth infrastructure investments, we believe these are structural tailwinds," the head of Tata Motors said in a positive long-term forecast.

He also stated, "From that perspective, in the longer term, the tailwinds will have their effect more than headwinds and therefore, in the longer term, the industry will grow."
"Until the time we see GDP growth happening in the range of 6-8 percent, we should see a healthy growth in road freight," Wagh stated, emphasizing the strong correlation between road freight growth and GDP development.
Overall, he added, the cyclical headwinds will cause some adjustments in the quarterly demand, or even the annual demand, as he believes that India's economic story would eventually raise road freight and, consequently, the demand for commercial vehicles.In an interview with reporters, he emphasized that the long-term expansion of the CV business will also benefit from a secure regulatory roadmap.The government has implemented a scrappage strategy and is increasingly offering incentives for scrappage, which will boost demand for replacements. Additionally, all of the incentives for electrification will aid in its penetration," he continued.

Due to the weak performance in the second quarter of last year, Tata Motors already projects double-digit growth on a year-over-year basis in the first quarter. He noted that the "momentum should continue" while discussing the industry demand expectation for the fiscal year.
However, he stated that since last year's second half was so high, it will be crucial to keep an eye on this fiscal year's second half. Even for this year, he thinks the company should achieve single-digit growth at this rate.
According to Wagh, the CV industry experienced a single-digit growth reduction in the first half of the previous fiscal year before recovering with double-digit growth in the second half following the rationalization of the GST rate.

The commercial vehicle market recorded its highest-ever wholesales in 2025–2026 with 10.80 lakh units, up 12.6% from 2024–2025, according to the most recent SIAM data published by PTI.
Impact of the West Asia War on Tata Motors
In response to a question concerning how the West Asia conflict affected Tata Motors' operations in the area, Wagh stated that it had an effect on both the supply chain and demand in international business.During the first two months of the US-Iran war, the Middle East used to account for almost 20% of our overall international business (monthly volumes). During that time, there were no shipments or movements.

However, he stated that the corporation has been gradually returning to the area since last month.We are going to ship cars to the Middle East this month. The CEO stated, "I believe the underlying demand is still there in the Middle East, and the business is getting back on track."
Tata Motors considered a different, more expensive, and lengthier way for shipping cars to the United Arab Emirates, "but fortunately, because the Strait of Hormuz is open now, we don't, we don't have to do that."

Regarding the effect on the supply chain, the automaker stated that a lot of materials came through the West Asian region, which raised the cost of commodities like aluminum and temporarily decreased the availability of supplies, mostly for commodities.All of this is now under control. Although it would have existed, the production impact has not been significant. He said that Tata Motors Ltd. would proceed with its planned vehicle price increase in July to partially offset the impact. "The residual impact on commodity costs and inflation impact remains," he said.He stated that the CV maker has begun a de-risking exercise and reevaluated its supply chain network as a result of the incident.Wagh stated, "So much of dependence on one route is something that we will de-risk," adding that this would also apply to vehicle exports.