Israeli strikes against Lebanon Wednesday's 100-missile bombardment, which killed 254 people hours after the US-Iran ceasefire, has left Donald Trump with three options: continue the war, pursue diplomacy, or compel Benjamin Netanyahu to step down.
The US President must also cope with post-ceasefire Iran strikes; Tehran fired missiles at Israel and other Gulf nations, citing Israeli actions, and restarted its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which transports one-fifth of the world's seaborne crude oil commerce.
The rocket exchange highlighted a weakness in the cease-fire agreement - Lebanon.
Iran has stressed that any agreement must include Lebanon, but the United States and Israel disagree.Trump told American channel PBS News on Wednesday morning that any strikes on Beirut would be "a separate skirmish" and that Lebanon was excluded from the truce due to Hezbollah. "That will get taken care of too…"
Israel has been as explicit about what it considers to be "existential threats". Officials have already stated Netanyahu's intention to 'totally damage Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities' and hit Lebanon until Hezbollah is eradicated.
Will Iran's hardliners cry 'betrayed' once more?
As a result, Trump will have to cope with Iranian wrath and suspicion, with many hardliners viewing Israel's actions as yet another 'betrayal' of efforts to create long-term peace.They will refer to strikes launched in June 2025 and February 2026 amid talks on a new nuclear/missile program agreement, which have been labelled as bad faith negotiating.
None of the three alternatives accessible to Trump are simple to implement.
Will the United States return to war?
Resuming the conflict will be met with shouts of wrath from Tehran and will significantly complicate the peace negotiations.
And additional US military operations will exacerbate violence in West Asia, aggravating an already disastrous energy crisis and potentially causing a global economic disaster.
It will also have political ramifications ahead of the November midterm elections, especially with approval ratings under strain. The ceasefire was portrayed as a significant 'victory' for Trump, and abandoning it would expose him to harsh criticism.

However, Trump's harsh combat rhetoric - calling Iranians "crazy ba****ds" and threatening to "unleash hell" through expanded attacks on Iranian power grids, oil infrastructure, and nuclear installations - ensures that option exists.
Finally, renewed warfare might put a burden on the US's fast depleted missile and drone arsenals, with some claiming that use rates exceed current manufacturing.
As early as March 3, leaked Pentagon data warned of low stocks if the war lasted another ten days.
Can diplomacy hold when Vance visits Pakistan?
The second approach is to strengthen diplomacy.
Vice President JD Vance is expected in Islamabad on Friday to begin peace talks with Iran.Vance played a major role in negotiating the ceasefire, and sources suggest Tehran is wary of speaking with any other Trump administration official. And Trump could choose to once again rely on him to resolve this situation.
However, if Israel continues to assault Lebanon, Vance will be hard pressed to reach a long-term peace settlement, necessitating a two-pronged US push, with Vance in Pakistan and Trump speaking with Netanyahu.
And the likely choice of location, Pakistan, diminishes Israel's chances of attendance.
Vance will also have to deal with Iran's requests for US troop withdrawal; almost 60,000 soldiers, at least 50% more than usual, were sent to the West Asia region during the last two weeks in preparation for a land assault.Other demands, such as the easing of sanctions, a civil-use nuclear program, reparations, and, most importantly, 'permission' to impose tolls on the Strait of Hormuz, will be vigorously disputed, but will most likely be secondary if Israel does not back down.
Make Bibi stand down, perhaps in June 2025?
The third alternative, putting pressure on Israel, is similar to what Trump had to do in June of last year, when Netanyahu broke the US-negotiated end to the 12-Day War.
Furious after Israel began air strikes despite agreeing to a "full and utter ceasefire" with Iran, the US President declared on Truth Social: "ISRAEL will not attack Iran. All planes will circle around and return home, sending a friendly "Plane Wave" to Iran.

Iran breached the truce, but "Israel also violated it," Trump claimed.The President also spoke directly with Netanyahu, according to his office.
A comparable intervention cannot be ruled out and may even be the best option.
To be perceived as exerting enough pressure on Israel to back down may persuade Iran that the US is committed to achieving long-term peace, or at least serious enough to engage in discussions to that purpose.
Reigning in Israel would also demonstrate, in Iran's eyes, that Washington dominates Tel Aviv rather than the other way around.
However, experts believe this is the least likely option, considering Netanyahu's public targeting of Lebanon and description of it as a "separate campaign".

Oil falls below $100, but for how long?
The two-week cease-fire was intended to give peace a chance.It was also expected to address the energy crisis caused by Iran's strikes on oil-producing Gulf neighbours and blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. Following the announcement of the truce, benchmark Brent crude sank 13-16 percent, while WTI, or West Texas Intermediate, fell 14-15 percent.
Both are keeping below the US$100 per barrel red line as of early April 9, but further missile attacks or failure by the US to enforce the truce will most likely push it back up, exacerbating a crisis that has resulted in spiking global fuel costs.