According to an annual US intelligence report released Wednesday, China does not want to invade Taiwan next year, but rather seeks to gain control of the self-governing island without using force.
China claims Taiwan as part of its sovereignty and has threatened to use force to seize control of the island, increasing military pressure in recent years with drills conducted around the island.
The intelligence community "assesses that Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification," according to its Annual Threat Assessment report.
Last year, US Department of Defence sources suggested that a strike may take place in 2027.
However, the intelligence community provided a more measured assessment of the situation.According to the analysis, Beijing will most likely continue to endeavour to create conditions for eventual unification with Taiwan without resorting to conflict in 2026.
However, it added that Chinese officials understand that an amphibious invasion of Taiwan "would be extremely challenging and carry a high risk of failure, especially in the event of US intervention."According to the report's authors, China has officially said that "unification with Taiwan is required to achieve its goal of 'national rejuvenation' by 2049," indicating a considerably longer prospective timeline for achieving its ambitions.
Beijing said it would weigh a number of things before deciding to invade Taiwan, including its military readiness, the island's politics, and whether or not Washington would intervene on Taiwan's behalf.
Washington does not formally recognise Taiwan, but it remains the island territory's primary military backer - though the tone of that support has shifted slightly under US President Donald Trump.