While aluminum exports have decreased due to increased activity in the manufacturing and energy sectors, steel exports have increased this year as domestic demand, especially from real estate construction, declines.
Over half of the world's steel and aluminum is produced in China. However, Beijing has imposed unofficial production ceilings in an attempt to control overcapacity, which both industries are likely to encounter.
Given that production for the first ten months of the year was 817.87 million tons, it is likely that 2025 output will go below 1 billion tons, the first time this has happened since 2019. Steel production is informally capped at no more than the previous year's 1.005 billion metric tons.

Soft steel demand is attributed to persistent difficulties in the real estate construction industry, and mills have attempted to make up for this by increasing their exports.
According to customs data issued on Monday, China's steel product exports increased 6.7% to 107.72 million tons in the first 11 months of this year when compared to the same time in 2024.
China's steel shipments would reach a record high of 117 million tons, surpassing the 112.39 million tons from 2015, if December exports are about average for the year.

Steel mills now benefit from exports because domestic prices are hovering around five-year lows. Shanghai exchange rebar ended Monday at 3,128 yuan ($442.43) per ton, having mostly traded sideways since a low of 3,012 yuan struck in early June.
LME futures on Turkish rebar ended last week at $560.50 a ton, demonstrating the competitive pricing of Chinese steel when compared to other benchmarks.
Despite some nations imposing import duties to safeguard domestic producers, China has been able to increase steel exports.
It should be mentioned that a large portion of China's steel is exported to other Asian nations, particularly those with little domestic steel production, therefore buying less expensive Chinese steel goods makes financial sense.

SLUMP OF ALUMINUM
China's shipments of refined aluminum and products have decreased, with exports for the first 11 months of the year down 9.2% to 5.59 million tons, in contrast to the surge in steel exports.
China's production of aluminum is predicted to approach the 45 million ton yearly ceiling, and the country's manufacturing and energy sectors' increased demand has reduced the amount of metal available for export.
On December 5, benchmark London prices reached $2,920 per ton, the highest since May 2022, due to the decline of Chinese aluminum on international markets.Since its 2025 low of $2,300 in early April, the contract has increased by 27%.
Western-based smelters, particularly those in Europe and Australia that have had to deal with growing energy costs, have found some relief in climbing prices after struggling to stay competitive in recent years.
Beijing is likely to further restrict global supplies in 2026 if it maintains the annual aluminum output quota at 45 million tons.
Is it likely that China's steel industry will emulate aluminum?
The rate at which domestic demand recovers will determine whether Beijing limits yearly steel production to a maximum of 1 billion tons.China's steel mills will probably keep trying to export their way to profitability or reduce capacity by retiring outdated furnaces as long as construction is a drag.