According to US President Donald Trump, the agreement or "concept of the deal" that permits New Delhi to purchase Caracas' crude oil is in place, and India will now buy crude oil from Venezuela rather than Iran. Although the Indian government has maintained this stance for the past few years, especially since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, sources stated that the decision to purchase oil is based on market fundamentals, despite the lack of an official response to Trump's remarks. Some Indian refiners would be eager to resume importing oil from Venezuela, according to sources in the country's refining industry.

Speaking to Air Force reporters Trump made the comments on Saturday while traveling to Palm Beach, Florida, in response to a query about whether China would get back the money it had given Venezuela in return for oil shipments. Trump had declared that Washington would take over Caracas's oil industry and that US majors would invest billions of dollars to revitalize the faltering Venezuelan oil business and repair its damaged oil infrastructure when US forces seized President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela in early January. Despite having the greatest oil reserves in the world, Venezuela produces less than 1% of the world's total.

"China will produce a lot of oil and is welcome to enter. China is welcome. We've already reached an agreement. India is coming in, and instead of purchasing oil from Iran, they will get it from Venezuela. Thus, the concept of the deal has already been reached," Trump stated.
Notably, however, since US sanctions on Tehran were reinstated during the first Trump administration, India has not bought any Iranian crude for almost seven years. There has been significant conjecture about the potential of Iranian oil coming back to the international market in event of a regime transition in Tehran following Iran’s recent extensive civil unrest.

Due to US obstacles to the port's development, India has not included any cash for the Chabahar port in Iran in this year's budget. In the previous several years, India has been paying a yearly outlay of Rs 100 crore to the massive connectivity project in the Sistan-Balochistan region in Iran’s southern coast. It is negotiating an extension with the US and has a waiver through April.
However, the tale of India's oil imports from Venezuela differs from that of Iran. Before the US imposed sanctions on Caracas in 2019, India—more especially, the private sector refining behemoth Reliance Industries (RIL)—regularly purchased Venezuelan crude.

Within a few months of the restrictions, Venezuela's oil imports ceased. According to official trade data from India, Caracas supplied about 16 million tons of crude to Indian refiners in 2019, making it New Delhi's fifth-largest oil supplier. In 2019–20, India and Venezuela had $6.40 billion in bilateral commerce, of which $6.06 billion came from Indian imports, mostly crude oil.
The US then relaxed sanctions on Venezuela's oil industry in October 2023, allowing unrestricted oil shipments for a period of six months. As a result, RIL and a few other Indian refiners resumed importing Venezuelan oil. But imports then stopped as the sanction waiver was not extended by Washington after its arrangement with Caracas on the conduct of free and fair presidential elections Venezuela broke down.

After receiving a sanctions relief from the US, RIL was allowed to resume Venezuelan oil imports a few months later. However, as the Trump administration threatened to impose additional taxes on nations purchasing Venezuelan petroleum, the business stopped importing oil from Venezuela in the summer of 2025. For several months now, India has not imported any Venezuelan oil.
The largest processors of heavy crudes, like those produced in Venezuela, in India have been the private sector giants Reliance Industries (RIL) and Nayara Energy (NEL). A few public sector refineries, such as the Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals (MRPL) plant in Mangaluru and Indian Oil's Paradip refinery, also occasionally process small amounts of heavy crude.

HPCL-Mittal Energy (HMEL), a joint venture of public sector refiner Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) and Mittal Energy, also processes heavy crudes from time to time, and so do a few other Indian refineries.
According to a recent note by commodity market analytics firm Kpler, planned investments aimed at increasing refinery complexity—such as upgrades at HPCL’s Visakhapatnam and a few other refineries—could expand India’s ability to process Venezuelan heavy crudes, gradually broadening system-wide intake capacity. Until then, only a small number of Indian refineries would be supported by any Venezuelan supplies entering India, "constraining aggregate intake potential despite improved availability."

Bilateral trade between New Delhi and Caracas plummeted as a result of the US sanctions against Venezuela and the subsequent collapse in India's imports of Venezuelan oil. It was $1.27 billion in 2020–2021 (when India imported $714 million), $424 million in 2021–2022 (when India imported $89 million), and $431 million in 2022–2023 (when India imported $253 million).
Delcy Rodriguez, the interim president of Venezuela, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi met on January 30 and decided to advance their bilateral ties in the next years. Rodriguez called Modi for the first time since the United States apprehended Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his spouse during the first week of January.

One of the subjects discussed by the leaders was energy. The two leaders decided to further broaden and strengthen the India-Venezuela collaboration in all sectors, including commerce and investment, energy, digital technology, health, agriculture, and people-to-people ties, according to a statement released by the Ministry of External Affairs.
According to the MEA, "both leaders emphasized the significance of their close cooperation for the Global South and exchanged views on various regional and global issues of mutual interest."
Trump’s comments come against the backdrop of US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela and its pressure on major energy-importing countries to avoid buying crude from countries sanctioned by Washington.

Russia is now one of India's biggest oil suppliers after the country dramatically increased its purchases of cheap Russian crude in recent years. The Trump administration levied 50% tariffs on India in 2025, which included a 25% penal penalty due to the country's substantial imports of Russian oil.
In light of American pressure on India's imports of Russian oil, experts also think that Venezuelan crude presents a politically acceptable diversification alternative. India's negotiating power with its regular West Asian oil suppliers is anticipated to rise in response to any increase in Venezuelan crude imports.