As Beijing gets ready for a summit with US President Donald Trump next month, China is stepping up its efforts to put an end to the Iran War while avoiding alienating Tehran.
President Xi Jinping's mid-May meeting with Trump is shaping Beijing's approach to the Middle East conflict even as the world's top crude oil importer, reliant on the Middle East for half its fuel, seeks to safeguard its energy supplies, analysts say.
Trump attributed Beijing's assistance in getting Iran to participate in last weekend's peace negotiations in Pakistan to China's moderate approach to the conflict, which has preserved its back-channel influence.
The flurry of diplomacy in the Middle EastEric Olander, editor-in-chief of the China-Global South Project, an independent organization that examines China's involvement in the developing world, said, "You've heard President Trump repeatedly mention how the Chinese talked to the Iranians." "Even if they don't have a seat at the table, that places them in the room with negotiators.
People familiar with China's thinking told Reuters that China is hoping to further its economic objectives and its claims on Taiwan at the summit because Trump is transactional and easily swayed.
"Butter him up, give him a red-carpet welcome and preserve strategic stability" is the prevailing opinion in Beijing, according to one person.Prior to the summit, which was the first visit by a US president in eight years, China's Foreign Ministry did not reply to enquiries regarding its diplomacy. According to Trump, it will happen on May 14 and 15.
In order to ensure that the meeting, which was previously delayed due to the fighting, proceeds well, China has engaged in a flurry of diplomatic activity and refrained from harshly criticising Trump's handling of the war, despite the US naval blockade of Iranian ports being a direct and growing threat, according to observers.
On Tuesday, Xi broke his quiet on the issue by presenting a four-point peace plan that emphasises maintaining international law, national sovereignty, peaceful cohabitation, and striking a balance between security and prosperity.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning refrained from denouncing Trump's threat that "the entire country can be taken out in one night," stating simply that China was "deeply concerned" and encouraging all parties to take a "constructive role in de-escalating the situation."
According to a Reuters count, special envoy Zhai Jun has visited five Gulf and Arab capitals, while Foreign Minister Wang Yi has made close to thirty phone calls and talks with colleagues seeking a ceasefire.
Zhai informed reporters that he could hear air-raid sirens while driving at one point to avoid disputed airspace.In an attempt to strengthen relations with a rival of Iran while pressuring Tehran to engage in discussion, Xi unveiled his peace plan during a meeting with Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi.
Trump-Xi Summit's Limited Focus
According to Cui Shoujun, an international affairs professor at Renmin University, China's "sense of urgency and the mode of intervention at the tactical level are shifting" as the conflict, which the US and Israel began on February 28, continues.
However, according to some analysts, Beijing can push for a truce while safeguarding the summit with Trump because Iran needs China more than China needs Iran.Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, stated that "Beijing's ideal outcome is the maintenance of no-strings-attached relationships with anti-Western countries like Iran but also preserving its opportunity to achieve some form of modus vivendi with the US."
Although China helped persuade Iran to speak with the US, its influence over decisions is restricted because it does not have a military presence in the Middle East to support its claims.
China's active Middle East diplomacy, according to some experts, is more theatre than statecraft."While the Iranians are keen to play up their relationship with China and have asked Beijing to serve as a guarantor of a ceasefire, Beijing has shown zero interest in assuming such a role," Patricia Kim of the Brookings Institution said. "Beijing appears content to remain on the sidelines as the United States bears the brunt of the pressure."
China may agree to make major agricultural purchases at the summit with Trump, as well as an agreement to purchase Boeing aeroplanes, which has been delayed for years due to regulatory issues and might be the largest such order in history.
Analysts predict that the meeting would be narrowly focused, ignoring ambitious subjects like manufacturing overcapacity, market access, and AI governance.