Suchart Piamsomboon, a 60-year-old farmer from Thailand's Chachoengsao province, went to the local store for fertilisers as planting season began in South East Asia's rice fields.
However, the fertiliser was still missing.
And it might not come, he was informed. Even if it did, each bag would cost more than 1,100 baht, a significant increase from the 800–900 baht it did just over a month ago.
Word had already spread that prices might reach 1,200 baht by the time Piamsomboon arrived home.When asked if he would plant this season, he replied, "I've decided not to do it." "The only outcome of farming is financial loss. To make ends meet, I would prefer to work as a day labourer and make between 100 and 200 baht every day.

Piamsomboon is not by itself.
Farmers throughout Asia, from Vietnam's Mekong Delta to Thailand's rice belt, are doing the same calculation and coming to the same dire conclusion. It's planting season. The fertiliser isn't.
And how much the world's rice bowl produces at the end of the year will depend on the choices made in the coming weeks.
Beijing followed Hormuz's closure
The war that most of these farmers previously had little interest in is the direct source of this disaster.
Approximately one-third of the world's seaborne fertiliser commerce passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which was essentially closed when the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28.Fertilisers from the Persian Gulf region are heavily imported by numerous nations.
The price of urea, the most popular nitrogen fertiliser in the world, increased by more than 40% in just a few weeks after the conflict began.
The world's attention shifted to China, the world's largest producer of fertiliser, when exports across the Strait came to a standstill.
China produced 25% of the world's fertiliser last year and exported more than $13 billion of it.
However, China has closed its own doors, prohibiting the export of various fertilisers that are essential to the agricultural sector in March. This was in addition to limitations that had been gradually implemented since 2021.According to a Reuters study of Chinese customs statistics, between half and 80% of those fertiliser exports are currently subject to restrictions.
A fertiliser exporter in Shandong province, China, who wished to remain anonymous, recalled getting a notification from the government to stop exporting.
His import-export business has been exporting fertilisers for the past few years, primarily to nations in the Asia Pacific area like Thailand, Indonesia, and New Zealand.
Before the embargo, he claimed that the company had contracts signed with "at least five or six countries" and confirmed shipping dates.The orders had already been given to us," he stated. "The customers were waiting. However, we've been instructed not to ship.

"Of course, we are worried about business, but we understand why the government is doing this," he said. "The government is trying to ensure enough domestic supply, so we will follow the regulations."
Ammonium sulphate, a lower-grade industrial waste that is a poor replacement for other more important fertilisers required to grow vital food crops like rice, is the sole fertiliser China still exports in significant amounts.The global fertiliser market and food security would unavoidably be shaken by China's export limit and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, according to Joseph Glauber, an Emeritus Research Fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute in Washington.Why is China refusing?
A national food security law passed in 2023 mandates that local governments include food production targets directly into their economic plans, demonstrating how China's leadership has made grain self-sufficiency a cornerstone of domestic politics.
The very farmers the legislation is intended to protect would be squeezed if fertiliser were allowed to leave the nation during a period of rising world prices.According to Professor Paul Teng, a Senior Fellow in food security at Singapore, "food security is a major political issue in China, and the government is not willing to compromise on ensuring there is enough food for its domestic baskets."

China's supply of liquified natural gas, which is essential for making nitrogen fertilisers, is in jeopardy due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Beijing's decision to stop shipments has had a significant effect on Southeast Asia, a region that is structurally dependent on Chinese fertiliser supply.
A large portion of the Philippines and portions of Africa are fed by Vietnam, one of the world's top exporters of rice.
Over 480,000 tonnes, or more than half of Vietnam's total fertiliser imports by volume, came from China in the first quarter of 2026.
In other words, without Chinese supplies, the nation that feeds the region cannot feed its own farms.The Philippines' situation is considerably more unstable. 75% of its fertiliser comes from China, and it has very little domestic output.
The Philippines imports around 80% of its rice from Vietnam, which exacerbates the situation.
Vietnamese farmers depend on Chinese fertiliser, while Filipino customers depend on Vietnamese rice, creating a straight line of dependency in the supply chain. If one link is broken, the entire chain may collapse.
In 2024, Thailand, an agricultural powerhouse whose rice exports feed most of Asia, imported 32% of its fertiliser from the Gulf and around one-fifth of its fertiliser from China. At this point, both routes are simultaneously threatened.The potential harvest
Food prices won't be affected by all of this this week or even next month.
Analysts predict that they won't be apparent until the end of the year, when harvests that were supposed to be planted this spring turn out to be either reduced or nonexistent.Professor Teng stated, "If the crisis continues, we will be seeing impact on crops like rice in the coming months, even though different countries may have enough fertilisers in stock for the immediate planting season."
According to the UN World Food Programme, 45 million more people could experience severe hunger in 2026 as a result of the combined effects of the Middle East conflict.

Food insecurity is predicted to increase by 24% across Asia and the Pacific, the greatest relative increase of any region on the planet.Pratheuang Piamsomboon, a 48-year-old rice farmer in Bangkok's Nong Chok district, stated, "There are moments when I wish rice farmers nationwide would stop planting altogether so the government would have no rice to eat and understand how we feel."It is impossible to describe the hardship.