As US and Israeli strikes force Tehran into open conflict and jeopardize the oil supply that drives China's economy, China's close energy connections with Iran are suddenly under the most intense scrutiny in years.
Beijing has demanded a truce and denounced the attacks. However, it has refrained from taking economic retribution that may jeopardize the very energy flows on which it depends.
The U.S. and Israel launched coordinated strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, missile installations, and leadership compounds in Tehran, Isfahan, and Qom before daybreak on February 28. The attack, which President Donald Trump dubbed "Operation Epic Fury," was presented as a final blow following months of stalled nuclear talks and escalating regional tension.As US and Israeli strikes force Tehran into open conflict and jeopardize the oil supply that drives China's economy, China's close energy connections with Iran are suddenly under the most intense scrutiny in years.

The goal of Israel's simultaneous campaign, "Roaring Lion," was to weaken Iran's senior leadership and ballistic missile capability.
Iran retaliated by firing ballistic missiles toward US military installations in the Gulf, including those in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, as well as Israeli territory. There have been reports of explosions in Dubai. As the conflict escalated beyond symbolic reprisal, regional traffic problems and airspace restrictions ensued.
The crisis is not abstract for China.
Over 80 percent of Iran's oil exports are purchased by Beijing. That equates to about 1.38 million barrels per day in 2025, or 13–14% of China's total seaborne crude imports. Although significant, the exposure is not unique.The co-founder of Avellon Intelligence, Balakrishnan, referred to Tehran's response as "a historic strategic blunder." According to him, Iran is up against more than just a stronger military alliance. It's "jeopardising its pivotal role as a linchpin in China's energy and geopolitical architecture in West Asia."

Iran and Beijing have established a 25-year cooperation framework that covers transportation, infrastructure, and energy routes related to the Belt and Road Initiative. In the face of Western sanctions, China has had a reliable supply buffer because to discounted petroleum cargoes that are frequently sent through intricate trading channels.

However, Balakrishnan contends that Iran's missile attacks on US property housed in Gulf Arab nations might have backfired tactically. "By targeting US assets on Arab soil, Tehran has alienated potential neutral parties and accelerated regional alignment toward the US Israel axis," he stated.The Strait of Hormuz is Beijing's most hazardous factor. The larger Middle East is the source of about 44% of China's oil imports. Iran's direct share of Chinese imports would not be the only effect of any significant chokepoint interruption.Beijing would be severely shocked if Hormuz were to close or be seriously disrupted, Balakrishnan warned, adding that prices may rise to between $100 and $130 per barrel. At a vulnerable economic juncture, such a surge would put pressure on China's industrial base and growth goals.

The relationship between China and Iran is glaringly asymmetrical. "Noting that Beijing purchases the vast majority of Tehran's oil exports, Balakrishnan stated that Iran needs China more than the other way around. Because of this disparity, China may quietly push for de-escalation while defending its long-term infrastructural and energy interests.
Iran may become further heavily reliant on Chinese funding, technology, and diplomatic cover if it becomes weaker and more isolated. However, he continues, that leverage is only effective if the battle does not result in a regional meltdown that disrupts shipping channels and shocks the oil markets.
According to him, China is currently denouncing the conflict, balancing its purchases between Russia, Iran, and the Gulf, and observing a partner push the boundaries of its own strategic worth.