Nearly 86% of regular east-west crude trade has been cut off by the nearly complete freezing of global oil shipments across the Strait of Hormuz, driving energy markets to the verge of collapse
Information from maritime analytics companies Although the river is not officially closed, Windward and Kpler demonstrate that it might as well be. Just three tankers carrying 2.8 million barrels passed through Hormuz on March 1, an 86% decrease from the daily average of 19.8 million barrels in 2026. Only one small cargo ship and one small tanker were using the main channels by the beginning of March 2.
There are currently about 706 non-Iranian tankers piled on both sides of the strait: 263 clean product boats, 109 dirty product tankers, and 334 oil carriers.An international "wait and freeze"
The oil markets responded right away. Brent crude increased by about 10% to about $80 per barrel, while European gas prices increased by more than 40% following attacks that caused shutdowns at a Qatari LNG plant and Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery.
Delivery timetables will fail and tanker lines will grow if the paralysis persists for several days. For Gulf seas, war-risk insurance has already become much more stringent. Fuel prices around the world are directly impacted by the rising freight rates and premiums for ships that are willing to approach Hormuz.
The implications worsen if it continues for weeks.

Alternative barrels from the US Gulf, West Africa, Brazil, and Russia are in high demand among refiners in Asia and Europe. Due to their heavy reliance on Gulf crude, China and India are immediately at risk.
Emergency measures are being considered by officials in New Delhi. According to some reports, if the interruption continues, India may increase imports of Russian crude, reduce exports of gasoline and diesel to safeguard local supplies, and use demand-management strategies like LPG rationing. These possible actions could not be independently verified by NDTV.The oil ministry stated on X, "We are continuously monitoring the evolving situation, and all necessary steps will be taken in order to ensure availability and affordability of major petroleum products in the country," following a review of supply by Oil Minister Hardeep Puri.
According to some industry estimates, India exports a substantial portion of its refined fuels, including about a quarter of its diesel production and a third of its gasoline. India imports about 80–85% of its LPG needs, with the majority coming from Gulf manufacturers via the Strait of Hormuz, making LPG the most vulnerable. According to industry estimates, if future cargoes cease, current inventories might not last more than two weeks.

At certain sites, state refiners Indian Oil, HPCL, and BPCL have started to increase LPG output. According to Puri, India's total crude and product reserves across strategic caverns, refineries, ports, and floating storage can cover roughly 74 days of demand; industry estimates show that dedicated crude caverns can hold about 17–18 days of demand, refined fuels can hold about 20–21 days, and LNG storage can hold about 10–12 days.
In light of US President Donald Trump's warning that the fight in West Asia might continue "weeks, not days," India may soon need to strike a compromise between domestic fuel security and its status as a major global supplier.