New Delhi: The government's planned ₹75,000 crore dividend from central public sector enterprises (CPSEs) and other investments in this fiscal year may be impacted by a protracted conflict in West Asia, which could keep commodity prices high and negatively impact state-run companies' profitability, according to officials.
A third of the government's dividend collection of ₹78,438 crore from all CPSEs and other relevant entities last fiscal year came from state-run petroleum companies, which could be negatively impacted by high oil prices. Despite declining last week following a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, Brent crude oil prices on April 10 were still about 32% higher than pre-war levels.

For the fifth consecutive year in the previous fiscal year, dividend collection surpassed budget projections. In addition to demonstrating CPSEs' excellent performance, high dividend inflows have lessened the impact of recent dismal disinvestment receipts.
"The ceasefire is still brittle. According to a senior finance ministry official who wished to remain anonymous, "CPSE profits would be impacted this fiscal if it collapses and the war continues for more than a quarter, pushing up global prices of oil and other inputs." However, he stated that the CPSE profitability is unlikely to be significantly affected if the war ends in a month and commodity prices decline.Since the war began on February 28, the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which monitors the price movement of 23 goods, has increased by around 9%.
Since it is too early in the fiscal year, the government does not currently plan to change the dividend objective for 2026–2027. However, if the conflict continues, it might review the calculations internally in the second half, the official said.
With a contribution of ₹25,798 crore, petroleum companies collectively contributed the most to the government's dividend kitty in the previous fiscal year, followed by organisations in industries like coal (₹10,876 crore) and power (₹13,213 crore). 64% of these payouts to the government in the previous fiscal year came from these three industries, which have significant exposure to commodities.

In an effort to protect consumers and oil-marketing corporations from the shocks of war, the government reduced the excise charge on petrol and diesel by 10 per litre on 27 March.
Revenue from disinvestment
According to DIPAM data, the government's total disinvestment and asset monetisation receipts for the previous fiscal year were ₹45,306 crore, exceeding the revised objective of ₹33,847 crore but falling short of the budget forecast of ₹47,000 crore.