It's 1902. Willis Carrier, a mechanical systems engineer, is working on an uncommon situation at a Brooklyn printing mill. Some days, the paper swells somewhat, the ink shifts, and the colours do not match.
He sees the problem isn't with the machines. It is the air. Temperature and humidity changes effect everything. By stabilising the air, he solves the problem. That solution becomes the world's first air conditioner (AC). Over time, this equipment finds its way into houses.
Today, that same principle is embedded in a much broader system. What appears to be a basic appliance is actually controlled by a complex chain of inputs and precise timing. Even little changes in weather or schedule can have a significant impact on quarterly profitability due to the tight demand window.From Unseasonal Rainfall
That's exactly what happened this year. Rain, hail, thunder, and snow fell throughout parts of India in March. For air conditioner makers and dealers, this has a direct impact on sales.
Traditionally, manufacturers increase shipments to dealers in March to meet summer demand. According to Axis Capital's retail channel checks, the room air conditioning business was down approximately 20% in January and 10% in February. Due to March rains, the regular seasonal rise was delayed by roughly two weeks.To Warmer Nights.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts an increase in heatwave days. However, maximum daytime temperatures are expected to stay average or below normal in many sections of the country. However, this does not imply a milder summer. The most relevant signal concerns overnight temperatures, which may remain above normal in most places.
This is part of a larger trend. Over the previous decade, evening temperatures have risen. According to the Council on Energy, Environment, and Water, over 70% of Indian districts saw more than five "very warm nights" per summer over the last decade.AC Demand to Rise

The traditional air conditioning market expects peak demand in the afternoon, which tapers off at night. That's beginning to change. When evenings continue warm, ACs run longer, power demand rises, and homes who previously relied on fans switch to ACs.
This transition is taking place in a relatively new market. India is one of the world's fastest-growing air-conditioning markets, with only approximately 10% of households now possessing one. In this sense, demand is not a limitation. However, supply is gradually becoming one.Raw Materials and Policy Challenges
Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is a vital production input that is used to braze copper tubes and cure components. India is primarily reliant on West Asia for LPG imports, and recent geopolitical disturbances have limited supply. The government focused selling LPG to households initially, while industrial supplies was prohibited.
Manufacturers have suggested that if the shortfall lasts longer, they will reduce production by 20-30%. Some have moved to oxyacetylene. However, because it is imported from the same region, it is neither an easy nor inexpensive option.
At the same time, copper costs, which are used in heat exchangers and compressors, have risen by almost 30% in the last year. Plastic, a basic derivative utilised in panels, vanes, and exterior casing, is likewise growing more expensive.In addition to greater input costs, regulatory reforms are increasing the strain. New guidelines implemented by the Bureau of Energy Efficiency in January 2026 have altered how ratings are defined. Products that were once classified as five stars are now closer to three, prompting producers to replace components and revamp systems.
As older inventory is cleared, new supply this summer will be priced more to reflect fuel limits, commodity inflation, currency pressures, and regulatory upgrades. Companies have been cautious with staggered increases in AC pricing, but their margins are indeed under pressure.
Final thoughts
Rising nighttime temperatures, increased first-time adoption, and more persistent heat trends are all contributing to increased demand. However, geopolitical disruptions, increased raw material costs, and regulatory changes are putting pressure on supply.