Three senior European intelligence sources told The Associated Press that as sanctions put pressure on Russia's beleaguered economy, Russian spy agencies have been more active in their attempts to obtain Western technology and defence secrets.
They claimed that Moscow's operatives are creating fictitious businesses, hiring intermediaries, and sending out hackers and cyber spies to collect data that might be used to target vital infrastructure.
Moscow's capacity to acquire equipment, technology, and research from Europe has been hindered by four years of international sanctions, and the grinding conflict in Ukraine has taxed important businesses and pushed the nation closer to a possible financial disaster.
According to Christoffer Wedelin, deputy head of operations at the Swedish Security Service, "they really know what they need" and are making "serious effort" to acquire cutting-edge machine tools, industrial equipment, research, and dual-use technologies.Russia is looking for advanced software, defence technologies, and research.
According to Wedelin, Russia is focusing on Sweden's defence sector and advanced research on the nation's most cutting-edge weapons, including the Gripen fighter plane. According to him, it is also attempting to obtain civilian-developed camera and laser technology that may be incorporated into Russian weaponry.
According to Juha Martelius, director of Finland's Security and Intelligence Service, Moscow is also attempting to steal technology in order to maintain up with or acquire an advantage over the West in the coming decades.
He stated, "We're talking about space technology, quantum ... arctic technology, marine technology," adding that Russia needed space technology "right now," without providing further details. Such technology is used by nations for navigation, communications, and satellite imaging.
According to Martelius, sanctioned computer technology and machine tool software updates are also necessary for Russia.
The head of the United Kingdom's signals intelligence agency, Anne Keast-Butler, charged on Wednesday that Russia was "relentlessly targeting" the United Kingdom and its European allies through technology theft, sabotage, and attempted assassinations.
Two individuals were detained by Swedish police in May on suspicion of breaking sanctions pertaining to a Turkish company that has shipped several metalworking and metal-turning machine tools to Russia.
According to Wedelin, businesses must be more conscious of the possibility that they may unintentionally join Russia's war supply chain as technology acquisition methods get more intricate.
"Every Russian security and intelligence agency is supporting the state's efforts to obtain this," he stated.Russia doesn't care as much about being discovered, according to intelligence officials.
In an effort to obtain information that it may use "when they get the chance and when it serves their purpose," Moscow is also launching cyberattacks against European businesses and vital infrastructure, according to Wedelin. He cited last year's attack on a power station in Sweden.
Wedelin stated that actors with ties to Russia attempted to "destroy" the facility but were unsuccessful since the system noticed the breach. He claimed that eroding Western support for Ukraine was one of the attack's goals.
Prior to that, Sweden's security agencies mostly monitored intelligence gathering, cybercriminal activities, and reconnaissance for possible attacks. According to Wedelin, the attack signalled a "switch" in Russia's strategy.
Russia's economic problems are getting worse
According to Kaupo Rosin, the head of Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service, Russia's economy "is not doing well at all," which may be the cause of the country's increasingly aggressive strategies.
According to Martelius, the war effort currently accounts for almost one-third of Russia's GDP. Growth has been stunted and persistent inflation has been fuelled by the war and the sanctions that followed.
According to Rosin, Russian officials had already reached roughly 3.4 trillion rubles ($47.9 billion) by the end of February, and they intended to have a budget deficit of 3.7 trillion rubles ($52.1 billion) for the entire year 2026.Oil prices have skyrocketed as a result of the Iran war that broke out on February 28. In an effort to reduce the price of fuel worldwide, the United States has waived restrictions for the sale of Russian oil, while the United Kingdom has relaxed its sanctions.
Since then, Russia's budget has probably improved due to increased revenue, but "it doesn't save them," according to Rosin. If Western pressure continues, Moscow may experience a financial catastrophe by the end of the year.
According to Rosin, his agency's information reveals a more pessimistic view among Russian officials during the last six months, with the narrative of "total victory" in Ukraine having faded. Since the full-scale invasion in 2022, about 500,000 Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine, according to British intelligence officer Keast-Butler.
For the most part, Russia and Ukraine have not disclosed their battle casualty numbers.
Citing the intelligence data, Rosin stated that many Russian leaders are secretly questioning "what is this all for" due to stagnant military advances and economic difficulties.
Although certain information on the conflict in Ukraine may have been "sanitised" before they reached President Vladimir Putin's desk, Martelius of Finland's intelligence agency said he thinks the Russian leader has a fairly clear image of the economic difficulties.
However, this does not imply that political change will occur.
Martelius stated that it is "very dangerous ... to start analysing Russia as if it is some country like ours." "It isn't."