According to shipping statistics and dealers, China is limiting refined fuel shipments rather than outright prohibiting them, with nations like Malaysia and Australia still receiving supply even after Beijing extended the ban until April last month.
According to tanker tracker Vortexa, shipments of diesel, jet fuel and petrol to locations outside than Hong Kong totalled 320,000 metric tonnes in the first two weeks of April, which is only a sixth of levels seen earlier in the year. This indicates that the export cut was more severe in April than it was in March.
China, the fourth-largest exporter of so-called clean fuels in Asia, has long imposed limitations on fuel exports.Following the start of the Iran War, its exports were restricted as refiners in Asia and the Middle East reduced production because they were having trouble obtaining crude, which added to the already limited supply in fuel markets.
According to Vortexa statistics, China shipped 82,000 tonnes to South Asia via Singapore in April in addition to 234,000 tonnes to Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Australia, and the Philippines.
According to traders and shipping statistics, refiners continued to maintain high supply volumes to Hong Kong, profiting from margins that have increased as a result of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.According to sources at the time, Beijing banned petroleum exports in the middle of March in order to prioritise its local supplies. Hong Kong and Macau, as well as aviation fuel refuelling for foreign flights and bunker sales for shippers on international voyages, are not included in the limits, which China has not made public.
Exports in March
According to reports, China extended its restrictions into April in order to make up for output reductions at mostly state-owned refineries. Regional purchasers who requested assistance to alleviate fuel shortages were exempt for minor volumes.
According to dealers and analysts, refiners hurried some shipments ahead of the March directive, but April exports are being closely examined.A gasoline trading manager at a state-owned company told Reuters that Beijing will be "arranging all the shipments" in April, with the exception of those to Hong Kong, which will result in a sharp decline in exports from March. The manager declined to be named owing to the delicate nature of the situation.
Requests for comment were not immediately answered by China's state planner, commerce, or foreign ministries.
According to Vortexa, exports of the three fuels to countries including Singapore, Malaysia, the Philippines, Australia, Vietnam, and Bangladesh totalled 436,000 barrels per day (bpd) in March, a 20% decrease from 551,000 bpd in February.
Non-Hong Kong exports decreased by a third to 250,000 bpd in March from 375,000 bpd in February, according to Kpler statistics.
Because of potential discrepancies in categorisation, data from trackers does not always align.According to Kpler analyst Zameer Yusof, "flows into Malaysia and Vietnam have remained near pre-ban levels, suggesting Beijing is making deliberate allocation decisions rather than applying a blanket restriction."This aligns with the Foreign Ministry's declared desire to collaborate on energy security with neighbours in Southeast Asia.
March shipments of diesel, petrol and jet fuel, including to Hong Kong, were unchanged from February but down a quarter from a year earlier to 2.58 million tonnes, according to calculations based on customs data released on Saturday. Petrol fell 68% for the month, while jet fuel fell 13.1%. Diesel remained constant.
Cargo shipments and sales from bonded storage for marine bunkering and aviation fuel refilling are included in customs numbers.
HONG KONG FLOWS INTACT
According to data from LSEG and Vortexa, Chinese shipments of diesel and jet kerosene to Hong Kong increased to 166,000 barrels per day in March.
Strong export margins were obtained by refiners who maintained high Hong Kong flows, according to merchants.