The meteorological agency warned that the El Nino weather pattern is anticipated to develop in June and July, but the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday maintained its projection for below-average monsoon rainfall in 2026.
Monsoon rainfall this year is predicted to be 90% of the long-term normal, while June rainfall is probably going to be about 92% of the long-term average, according to the weather monitor.
According to the IMD, there is a 92% chance that El Nino conditions will prevail throughout the 2026 monsoon season as neutral ENSO conditions across the equatorial Pacific are now shifting towards El Nino. The weather pattern is expected to get stronger as the season goes on, according to the majority of global climate models.Weak El Nino conditions are predicted for June, while weak-to-moderate El Nino conditions may occur in July and August, according to the IMD prediction. The weather agency predicts that El Nino will reach a moderate-to-strong phase by September.
The monsoon core zone, which comprises the majority of rain-fed agricultural areas in central and northwest India, is expected to get below-normal rainfall of less than 94% of the long-period average (LPA), according to the forecast office. In addition to central India and the southern peninsula, Northwest India is predicted to receive rainfall that is less than 92% of the LPA.

Only northeastern India is expected to see typical rainfall, which falls between 94 and 106% of the long-term average.
According to the IMD's probability estimate, most regions of the nation are anticipated to have below-average rainfall during the June–September monsoon season. Nonetheless, there may be normal to above-average rainfall in some portions of northwest India, the southern peninsula, the region that borders east-central India, and a few isolated areas in the northeast.
The prediction coincides with growing worries about how lesser rains may affect agricultural productivity and food costs, exacerbating India's already rising inflation in the midst of the ongoing Iran-US conflict.According to the weather office, El Nino conditions, which are linked to less rainfall on the Indian subcontinent, are predicted to develop in the upcoming weeks. In several regions of the nation, the phenomena usually results in higher temperatures and irregular rainfall distribution.
A monsoon that is below average might strain agricultural output and raise the possibility of higher food prices later in the year. Due to the fact that a significant portion of farmed land is still unirrigated, India's agricultural economy is still largely dependent on seasonal rainfall.
Nearly 70% of India's yearly rainfall occurs during the monsoon, which typically starts over Kerala in June. For the cultivation of kharif crops, reservoir replenishment, and rural consumption, the June–September rainy season is essential.