What Experts Said US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated before to his departure from India earlier this week that New Delhi has "committed" to buying €500 billion worth of American products over the next five years, with an emphasis on energy, technology, and agriculture. The comments have drawn criticism from international media and trade specialists in addition to New Delhi's political circles. They have questioned why India would have accepted what appears to be a one-sided agreement and whether it stands to earn anything in return.
According to a Financial Times article, it was "puzzling why India would make such a commitment at this stage."It emphasized that since both countries signed the agreement, the foundations have changed and that "it would be foolish for India to sign an agreement that appears to take far more than it gives."
What Has Changed?
When the US and India announced their temporary trade agreement in February of this year, the $500 billion number was first brought up. India was relieved when US President Donald Trump reduced tariffs on Indian imports from 50% to 18% at that time. However, the White House stated at the time that New Delhi "intends" to more than treble its yearly imports of US goods in coal, information and communication technology, and other products in exchange for the reduced tariffs.The Ministry of Commerce added aircraft and aviation parts to the purchase list and buried this as the penultimate point in their announcement of the contract. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal responded to concerns about the clause by stating that, considering the fast expansion of the Indian economy, the figure was extremely conservative. He implied that this was a fair trade-off for reduced tariffs when he stated that the demand from the aviation industry alone will account for $100 billion in trade over the next five years.
However, later that month, the US Supreme Court declared that Trump's broad reciprocal and fentanyl-related tariffs were unlawful, changing the situation.

Concerns of ExpertsAccording to the FT story, it is very strange that India is not only sticking to its intention to purchase $500 billion worth of American goods over the next five years, but is also not contesting Rubio's claim that this now amounts to a "commitment."
The post cited Goyal's past remarks and asked why India wouldn't keep its supplier options open to get the best deal, regardless of the country's ability to absorb expensive goods like aircraft and aviation engines.
Given that India is already having difficulty maintaining its foreign reserves as a result of a declining rupee and rising oil costs brought on by the US-Iran war, the issues become more pressing.Economists and trade experts have questioned the viability of $100 billion in imports annually in the absence of a clear policy push encouraging businesses to use American suppliers.Economist Madhavi Arora of Emkay Global told news agency Reuters, "The math doesn't add up." "More aspirational than realistic" is how she described the goal.
Almost a fifth of New Delhi's total shipments in the fiscal year 2024–2025 went to the US, making it India's top export destination.
India's largest bilateral surplus may decrease and its overall trade deficit may increase if imports rise significantly and exports remain close to pre-tariff levels. In 2024–2025, India's total goods trade deficit was $283.5 billion.

"If it is a $100 billion every year, it would completely upset India's trade balance," independent trade analyst Biswajit Dhar previously told Reuters. He went on to say that rather than increasing exports, the current rules primarily protect access to India's important market.
Potential Cause of India's Action
Rubio's journey to India coincided with a particularly delicate period in US-Indian relations, as many Indians are also concerned about Trump's recent approach to China and Pakistan.
Furthermore, since Trump took office, India has been protective about a trade agreement with Washington. It was thought that New Delhi would be among the first to obtain one, but things went south, and India became one of the nations with the highest tariffs.