Towering white wind turbines line hilltops like sentinels above a hydrogen industry Beijing is attempting to wrest away from coal in the undulating, windswept grasslands of Chifeng in Inner Mongolia, northern China.
They are a part of a $2 billion project, the largest of its type, that uses renewable energy to power banks of electrolysers that generate the molecules required for low-emission steelmaking, fertiliser, and marine fuel.
India's "green hydrogen" aspirations are similar to China's, but they are considerably more aggressive and tangible. New Delhi is aiming to produce 5 million metric tonnes of green hydrogen per year by 2030, which is five times the size of the current world market and roughly twice what analysts predict Chinese output would be by then. This goal is supported by subsidies totalling about $2.1 billion.

The two most populous countries in the world have placed enormous wagers at the same time that the West has quietly retreated from its grandiose green hydrogen ambitions from the beginning of this decade because to more difficult-than-expected financial constraints.
Despite having somewhat distinct goals, China and India share the ability and political will to drive a market through project financing, demand management, and cost reduction through scale.
By combining subsidies with offtake assurances from refineries, fertiliser factories, and steelmakers, India has attracted private finance and made projects bankable from the start.Energy security is the driving force. India's primary source of hydrogen is imported natural gas, whose supply has been negatively impacted by the pandemic, the Middle East, and the Ukraine.
China wants to maintain its hegemony in hydrogen as the industry moves toward cleaner energy. It can do this by attracting private companies with large-scale, planning-led industrial projects or by deploying state-owned giants.
Beijing identified green hydrogen as a frontier industry along with quantum computing, brain-computer interfaces, and AI-enabled robots in its five-year plan that was unveiled in March. This elevation in status indicates that more cash would be directed towards the sector.

SPEED AND SCALE IN CHINA
According to Minh Khoi Le, head of hydrogen at Rystad Energy, China invested $3.7 billion in green hydrogen generation last year, more than twice as much as the United States.
According to Rystad forecasts, China would have about 2.6 million tonnes online annually by 2031, representing $26 billion in investment.
The Chifeng project, run by Chinese wind turbine manufacturer Envision Energy, received a large portion of 2025's funding. It delivered its first shipments of green ammonia to Lotte Fine Chemical in South Korea in February with the goal of selling green hydrogen and ammonia to markets in Asia, Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East.

"If we go back a year or two ago, China was not very visible on this situation of green hydrogen, and then two years later they have almost all the biggest projects in the world," stated Jose Bermudez, the hydrogen lead at the International Energy Agency.
According to Kevin Tu, general director of Agora Energy China, China most likely doubled its ability to manufacture hydrogen from renewable sources last year, reaching 250,000 tonnes, more than half of the world's total, and exceeding a 2022 goal to produce 100,000 to 200,000 tonnes annually by 2025.
According to Tu, the price of green hydrogen can drop to about $2 per kilogram in Inner Mongolia and other areas with strong winds and sunlight, which is about equal to that of coal-based hydrogen.

India: Combined Domestic Demand
Since the government of India established the National Green Hydrogen Mission in 2023, the cost of manufacturing green hydrogen has dropped from approximately $5 to 279 rupees (almost $3) per kilogram under the clean energy ministry.
The mission's leader, Abhay Bakre, told Reuters that as technology advances, procedures grow more effective, and more parts are produced domestically, the cost should decrease to about $2 by 2032.
According to him, projects would start supplying "large quantities" of green hydrogen as early as next year and "scale up very fast" to reach the goal of 5 million tonnes by 2030.Industrial giants like Larsen & Toubro, Bharat Petroleum Corp., GAIL, and JSW Steel create roughly 8,000 tonnes of green hydrogen and its derivatives a year under the scheme.
Through state-run reverse auctions, where vendors compete to secure long-term contracts by undercutting one another, New Delhi is stimulating demand by announcing the lowest price producers are willing to accept.
A third of the nation's hydrogen needs might be met by the 724,000 tonnes of green ammonia that suppliers and fertiliser businesses signed offtake agreements for, according to the government last month.According to a report by analysts at the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, "bold, sector-specific domestic initiatives, coupled with strategic international partnerships to unlock export potential" are necessary to maintain momentum.
"With one of the lowest costs of renewable power generation in the world, India is well placed to capture a significant portion of the export market."